[SMM Steel Market Morning News] Inter-seasonal liquidity shows resilience, with a loose monetary environment expected to persist in July

★Macro★

01 ★★★ [Inter-Month Liquidity Shows Resilience, July Expected to Maintain Loose Conditions]

Facing multiple disturbances including tax periods and massive maturing interbank certificates of deposit, the inter-month liquidity at June's month-end demonstrated strong resilience overall, with short-end rates fluctuating mildly and market liquidity remaining reasonably ample. Looking ahead to July, market liquidity may face phased pressure due to fiscal payments, accelerated government bond supply, and tax periods. However, under the central bank's sustained support and flexible monetary policy adjustments, the overall liquidity environment is still expected to stay loose. Industry experts anticipate that despite localized disturbances, interest rate levels will remain broadly stable, with DR007 likely fluctuating between 1.5% and 1.6%, leaving room for further monetary policy easing.

02 ★★ [YTD Green Financial Bond Issuance Exceeds 170 Billion Yuan]

Since the beginning of the year, green financial bond issuance in the interbank market has surpassed 170 billion yuan, marking significant growth compared to the full-year 2024 issuance of approximately 222.5 billion yuan, with a notably accelerated issuance pace. Against this backdrop, recent green financial bond coupon rates in the interbank market have shown a sustained downward trend.

03 ★★ [PBOC Net Withdraws 275.5 Billion Yuan via Open Market Operations]

The PBOC conducted 131 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with bid and awarded amounts both at 131 billion yuan at an unchanged rate of 1.40%. As 406.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, this resulted in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan.

★Industry & Downstream★

01 ★★★ [China Index Academy: June New Home Prices Show Structural Mild Growth]

Recently, China Index Academy released its June real estate market research report. According to the China Real Estate Index System's survey data covering new and second-hand home sales in 100 cities and rental markets in 50 cities: In June, the average second-hand home price across 100 cities stood at 13,691 yuan/m², down 0.75% MoM and 7.26% YoY, with most cities continuing to see "volume discount" trends. The average new home price reached 16,847 yuan/m², posting a structural 0.19% MoM increase and 2.59% YoY growth, driven by premium projects in some cities. For rental housing, influenced by graduation season, demand in key cities increased, narrowing the MoM rental decline to 0.27% (down 3.71% YoY) across 50 cities.

02★★[January-June Sales Total of TOP100 Real Estate Enterprises Reached 1.83641 Trillion Yuan]

According to China Index Academy data, from January to June 2025, the sales total of TOP100 real estate enterprises reached 1.83641 trillion yuan, down 11.8% YoY, with the decline widening by 1 percentage point compared to January-May. In June alone, TOP100 enterprises' sales declined 18.5% YoY, with the MoM decline expanding by 1.2 percentage points compared to May. From January to June, there were 4 enterprises with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan (2 fewer than the same period last year) and 46 enterprises with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan (2 more than the same period last year). The equity sales of TOP100 enterprises reached 128.127 billion yuan, with equity sales area at 65.706 million m².

In June alone, TOP100 enterprises' sales declined 18.5% YoY, with the MoM decline expanding by 1.2 percentage points compared to May. From January to June, there were 4 enterprises with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan (2 fewer than the same period last year) and 46 enterprises with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan (2 more than the same period last year). The equity sales of TOP100 enterprises reached 128.127 billion yuan, with equity sales area at 65.706 million m².

03 ★★ [June Heavy-duty Truck Market Sales Rose 29% YoY]

According to statistics from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in June 2025, China's heavy-duty truck market sales reached approximately 92,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), up 4% MoM and approximately 29% YoY compared to 71,400 units in the same period last year. From January to June, cumulative sales reached approximately 533,300 units, up 6% YoY.

04 ★★★[CISA: May 2025 Analysis of Steel Raw Material Procurement Costs]

In May, except for metallurgical coke, domestic pellet, and imported pellet procurement costs which increased slightly MoM, procurement costs for other varieties declined MoM, though the rate of decline narrowed. Notably, procurement costs for PCI coal, steam coal, and ferroalloys saw relatively large declines. From January to May, except for ferromanganese (FeMn), procurement costs for all other varieties declined significantly YoYZ34/>★Other Hot Topics★

⭕[Henan Iron and Steel: Accelerating Progress Toward Advanced Steel Materials Leadership]On June 30, the Second Plenary Session of the First Party Committee of Henan Iron and Steel Group was convened to deeply study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches during his field trip to Henan and key discussions on Henan's work. The meeting earnestly implemented the spirit of the Ninth Plenary Session of the 11th Provincial Party Committee, summarized H1 work, deployed key tasks for H2, commended advanced collectives and individuals, and motivated all staff to strengthen confidence, maintain momentum, study ideological theories, enhance coordination, ensure implementation, and guarantee the completion of annual objectives to successfully conclude the 14th Five-Year Plan. The group's party secretary and chairman, Xuebin Bo, presided over and delivered a speech. General Manager Pan Shuqi reported on the production and operation situation in H1 and made arrangements for H2 work.

⭕[Masteel Successfully Passes Lloyd's Register Quality Assurance Audit] Masteel recently passed the audit conducted by international certification authority Lloyd's Register Quality Assurance (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as LRQA), obtaining CE, UKCA, and BC1 certifications covering European, UK, and Singaporean markets, and successfully completing the re-certification audit for the EU ISO9001 quality management system. This audit was characterized by its lengthy duration, extensive coverage, and multiple production lines involved. The LRQA audit team conducted rigorous inspections of Masteel's entire production processes, quality management systems, and product compliance. Leveraging its excellent operational management, stringent quality control chain, and continuous technological innovation capabilities, Masteel successfully passed all evaluations. Since its initial certification, Masteel has maintained 18 consecutive years of successful annual surveillance and re-certification audits.

⭕[US Initiates Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duty Investigations on Concrete Rebar] According to China Trade Remedy Information Network, on June 25, 2025, the US Department of Commerce initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on steel concrete reinforcing bar imports from Algeria, Egypt, and Vietnam, and a parallel anti-dumping investigation on imports from Bulgaria. This action was taken in response to a petition filed on June 4, 2025 by the Rebar Trade Action Coalition and its member companies. The case primarily involves products under HS codes 7213100000, 7214200000, and 7228308010. The US International Trade Commission (ITC) is expected to make a preliminary determination on anti-dumping and countervailing duty industry injury by July 21, 2025 at the latest. Should the ITC determine that imports of the subject merchandise cause or threaten material injury to the US domestic industry, the US Department of Commerce will continue its investigations and is anticipated to issue preliminary countervailing duty determinations by August 28, 2025, and preliminary anti-dumping duty determinations by November 12, 2025.